English to French Bus/Financial Mathematics & Statistics

The main input data is definition of the risk; for catastrophe programmes, risk is estimated (and, for parametric programmes, defined) via catastrophe risk models. These models aim to provide a profile of future losses assuming that basic statistical patterns seen in historical times **are either replicated or vary** in a defined way. The key challenge for catastrophe risk profiling is that the most severe events occur infrequently, and therefore the full range of loss scenarios has not, generally, been sampled during a relatively short historical record.

-> S'agissant de climat, j'ai opté pour des "séries statistiques"... je comprends bien le fond et le concept, mais la mise en forme précise (du point de vue terminologique) me pose problème!

Merci!