金融危机时期，大家怎么处理外汇收入？

Mingle Ji wrote:

最近看新闻报道说，面临巨额财政赤字，明年美国很可能会大量发行纸币，从而导致美元贬值。美元发行量实际上已在增加，之所以没有贬值反而在升值，是因为在全球共同应对经济危机的情况下，各国对美元的需求都很大，美元出现“暂时短缺”的状况。然而，一旦危机度过，市场信心恢复，各国对美元的需求量就会下降，那时美元的大量发行就会导致其贬值。基于这种情况，我想应该在适当的时候把收汇收入兑换成人民币，大家是怎么想的呢？

Red & Black wrote:


Correct! You are thinking almost the same way as Joseph in Egypt (cf. Old Testament). Joseph kept corns when there were abundant and sold them when there was a famine.

My husband told me the other day the same thing as you write here. He said, since my government pays me in US dollars and Taiwan needs US dollars just as bad as the other countries, we shall live on US dollars in Taiwan. His income last month was about 10 thousand USD. However, it was 2/3 in EUR. So, we decide to take 1/3 of his USD income to combine with my income in USD for our living sustainment in Taiwan and leave EUR in Europe while the exchange rates for EUR to USD and New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) are dropping and the interest rates in Europe are going up.

As you reasoned, when the over issuing of USD comes to the extent that the depreciation is felt, EUR will go up while USD drops and then it is time to move EUR back to Taiwan for living sustainment while we will just keep the USD income Argentina for another "circle of 7 years."

I think every freelancer in Asia shall be prepared for such impact of a depreciation of USD during the second quarter of the next year.


[Editd at 2008-10-19 19:54]

Angeline_sh wrote:

阿姨是个中高手:)

Angeline_sh wrote:

阿姨是个中高手:)

Red & Black wrote:



Correct! You are thinking almost the same way as Joseph in Egypt (cf. Old Testament). Joseph kept corns when there were abundant and sold them when there was a famine.

My husband told me the other day the same thing as you write here. He said, since my government pays me in US dollars and Taiwan needs US dollars just as bad as the other countries, we shall live on US dollars in Taiwan. His income last month was about 10 thousand USD. However, it was 2/3 in EUR. So, we decide to take 1/3 of his USD income to combine with my income in USD for our living sustainment in Taiwan and leave EUR in Europe while the exchange rates for EUR to USD and New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) are dropping and the interest rates in Europe are going up.

As you reasoned, when the over issuing of USD comes to the extent that the depreciation is felt, EUR will go up while USD drops and then it is time to move EUR back to Taiwan for living sustainment while we will just keep the USD income Argentina for another "circle of 7 years."

I think every freelancer in Asia shall be prepared for such impact of a depreciation of USD during the second quarter of the next year.


[Edited at 2008-10-19 19:54]

isahuang wrote:

I don't think Euro will go up,

and the interest rate for Euro zone is set to go lower not higher. The near term (say one year) trend for Euro is bearish and dollar will stay strong for a while. teh exchange rate between Yuan and dollar hasn't budged much since late July. Given the slow down of China's economy and the loosening of monetary policy in China, IMO, the exchange rate between yuan and dollar will remain stable for a while.

wherestip wrote:

However, like the average Joe in the United States, I don't usually pay attention to the fluctuation of different currencies.

Mingle Ji wrote:

Wenjer Leuschel是Red & Black的老公？
如果猜错了，请见谅。
Wenjer Leuschel确实是真正的高手，我的问题等好久都没人回答，最后都是他解决的。

Dallas Cao wrote:



真正的高手是阿姨的老公，我说过，除了孔子和毛主席，被人引用最多的也就是阿姨的老公这个高手了。没见Red&Black每贴必说my husband said或my husby told me或my husby would say么？

开个玩笑。

[Edited at 2008-10-21 06:11]

Analysts said that the movements are symptomatic of the end of a long period when cheap credit fueled investment booms, a period which started in the wake of the terrorist attacks in the U.S. in 2001 when the U.S. Federal Reserve slashed interest rates. As investors now flee emerging market risk, beneficiaries have been the dollar and the yen, both considered safe haven currencies because of the lack of their banks' exposure to emerging markets.

"It seems reasonable to suppose that just about every major trend of the last six years that was fuelled either directly or indirectly by the availability of cheap and abundant cash is at risk of a significant, if not complete, unwind," said Neil Mellor, currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon.

The euro fell in part on fears that European banks, particularly those in Germany and Austria, have lent heavily in countries such as Hungary, Russia, Ukraine and Belarus that may be in serious difficulty or even heading for financial collapse. As well, trouble in the east may hurt EU trade with the region.